A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
