The Way This Unusual Season Broke the Typical Coach of the Year Mould.

Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently serves as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the biggest turnaround receives the award. In practice, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or merely the biggest surprise.

Yet the current competition is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions falling away and longtime also-rans rising in unison. In an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a normal campaign!

Where his case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff mix of youth and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

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